- The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

Michael Pillsbury’s The Hundred-Year Marathon is that rare book which manages to be both revelatory and depressingly obvious: revelatory in how clearly it lays out China’s long-term strategy for global dominance, and depressingly obvious in how American diplomats, politicians, bureaucrats, and policy analysts managed to miss it all while patting themselves on the back for their “engagement.” Pillsbury politely calls it hubris. I call it willful blindness wrapped in smug self-assurance. The book lays bare how, for decades, successive U.S. administrations convinced themselves that China’s rise would be “peaceful” and that a little free trade would turn Beijing into a Jeffersonian democracy with dumplings. Instead, Pillsbury shows how China, patient and calculating, marched steadily toward its long game of displacing American power while the West lectured itself into paralysis. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has at least tried to keep pace, throwing money, technology, and doctrine at the problem. But Pillsbury makes the uncomfortable point that military effort alone may not matter much if the other levers of national power, namely diplomatic, informational, and economic, continue their tradition of self-inflicted sabotage. The failures in the Middle East over the past decades should have been evidence enough that the U.S. diplomatic and bureaucratic policy community needs a significant paradigm-shifting re-calibration. A Pentagon full of hypersonic weapons will not mean much if Foggy Bottom, Wall Street, and think-tank row keep rolling out the red carpet for their own undoing. The sobering takeaway? Should China launch violent expansion in the near future, it may not be the U.S. military that fails first. It may be the diplomats still penning their “win-win partnership” white papers, the economists still high on quarterly earnings, and the analysts still stuck in Cold War nostalgia. Pillsbury does not just suggest the clock is ticking; he shows that it has been ticking for decades while the United States was too busy congratulating itself on being “indispensable.” In short, The Hundred-Year Marathon is equal parts diagnosis, warning, and slap in the face. America’s real marathon, it turns out, is not about competing with China, it is about seeing past its own arrogance long enough to realize the race has already started.

This reading really get open your eyes how China is going to be a hegemonic power

Worth reading to understand what elite American policymakers think of China and how views have changed. That’s the extent to which this book is useful. The author has the seal of a convert, deriding China for seeking to become a global hegemon, cultivating friends in other countries, undercutting those deemed unsympathetic, suppressing dissent, seeking to develop military supremacy and trying to burnish its own global image. Remarkably, the author seems completely unaware of how the US itself rose to power, and how its role during WW2 and the end of the colonial era could be read in similar ways. The author also repeatedly claims the US is free of propaganda, suppression of dissent and a beacon of goodwill to the world. This is, of course, laughable, but then one realizes he is being completely serious. This realization alone is worth buying the book. Pillsbury has drunk so much of his own koolaid that he believes the war on terror was a just and good thing, American military supremacy should be applauded by the rest of the world, and ascribes many virtues to capitalism that it does not possess in practice. If other elite policymakers are anything like Mr. Pillsbury, they too believe these fairytales, and that explains why they are so sure of themselves when starting wars and destroying millions of lives. The real value of this book is as a warning. If these fools ever push to go to war with China (or whoever else they see as competition), they should be opposed by any means necessary.

Dr. Michael Pillsbury's book, "The Hundred Year Marathon" may be the most useful and insightful book on China I have read. The subtitle of this book explains why. “China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower”. This book and the force of his strategic intellect transformed thinking in Washington on China, rescuing it from decades of defeatist inertia. This month, Pillsbury produced a savvy American trade deal for Trump with China, despite hysterical doomsday predictions from the media and the establishment. Pillsbury helped Trump overpower China’s wealthy lobby on K Street, led by President Clinton’s Secretary of State Madeline Albright. A dangerous trade war was prevented and America’s farmers were big winners along with the rest of us. The first difficult strategic victory Pillsbury achieved was inside the Reagan administration but the media barely covered it, Pillsbury defeated deep state resistance against providing Stinger missiles to the freedom fighters in Afghanistan who defeated the Red Army. This shocked the evil empire and freed 21 nations from communist tyranny in three years. We defeated a trillion dollar enemy by spending ten times less than the price of an aircraft carrier, and losing NO (!!!) American lives. This victory proved the desire of people overseas to be free is America’s most cost-efficient weapon, but the military industrial complex and the Washington establishment still hates it because the spread of freedom endangers their own power and profits Pillsbury increases the odds for Trump to “make us tired of winning” This book marshals the author's unique insights and experiences to demolish conventional wisdom. Dr. Pillsbury has efficiently equipped me with the background knowledge and history to evaluate the credibility of articles about this rapidly expanding power and the impact it will have on us sooner rather than later. The one shortcoming is that Mr. Pillsbury has missed the decision of the Chinese elite to incorporate Alvin Toffler's third wave theory as part of its national strategy in 1982. This decision has kicked off a series of annual Chinese GDP growth rates of 7 to 10%, positioning them to pass us much sooner than anyone expected..

Very well researched study of Chinese aggression toward the United States and the world writ large but the one area China lags and I believe will never outperform the United States is in the innovation of ideas. China, in order to succeed, still relies on theft of intellectual property. That may continue to help them grow but such a strategy will never lead.

For anyone who hasn’t read it and is concerned about international relations with the Peoples Republic of China, this book is a must read. Michael Pillsbury has been an expert on foreign policy as it relates to the PRC since the Reagan administration. He explains why our favorable approach toward China (beginning with Nixon’s visit and continuing with Reagan’s expansion of trade) must change in light of China’s 100-year plan to become THE global power. I don’t think his view is merely a Neocon propaganda piece meant to acquire public support for increased militarization in the South China Sea and increased sanctions against the PRC (although it might well be part of it). I took a Chinese history class where the professor was a man who escaped “Red China” (what we called the PRC in the 1970s at BYU) shortly after Mao ZeDong took over. He escaped “by any means but air,” and went on to detail the terror and famine which ruled.” It’s troubling that since Tiananmen Square, the characterization of Western influence as evil and corrupt is taught to Chinese youth. Xi Jinping is more like Mao than any leader has been in years. Only this time, thanks to us, the Chinese have the technology and the economy to accomplish their goals on a global scale. The book is written for the lay person with only a superficial understanding of China's history, yet at a level that is neither condescending nor strictly academic. Great job.

In some ways this book is as fantastical as “The Travels of Marco Polo.” It’s a disturbing account of the Chinese Communist Party’s obsession with displacing the Unites States as the world’s leading economic and political power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s China takeover. According to the author, becoming the world’s number-one power is China’s dream, and the goal of “The Hundred-Year Marathon.” Only China’s dream could become America's nightmare, because of the way China is going about it, which is through deception on a tall order: stealing technology rather than creating it themselves, embracing mercantilism rather than free trade and a free-market economy, demonizing America in Chinese school books, and poisoning their own environment and that of their neighbors with dangerously high levels of toxic pollutants. In a world where image is everything, China is carefully crafting an image of friendliness and cooperation; as being something of a victim of centuries of abuse by outside nations (Western Europe, Japan, the U.S.), and in need of a helping hand with modernization and of becoming a viable world economy and friendly U.S. ally. China wants America to give-and-give-and-give, while offering nothing of substance in return. Reading this book I couldn’t help thinking of Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope technique to beat a younger and stronger boxer (George Foreman). That seems to be China’s plan for overtaking the U.S.—to rope-a-dope America into complacency. By the time Washington’s leaders have figured out what China’s doing it will be too late; they will have achieved their ultimate of goal of becoming the world’s leading power. And, irony of ironies, we will have helped them do it. Sound far-fetched? Michael Pillsbury makes a compelling case. He knows his subject well, having been a China observer since the 1960s, an advisor to presidents Richard Nixon to Barrack Obama, as well as serving in senior positions for the Defense Department, working in conjunction with the CIA, and being a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Pillsbury’s book comes at a time when China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping has been perhaps too candid, admitting he regrets the fall of the Soviet Union, his disdain for an independent Chinese judiciary, free speech, individuality, and human rights. He sees the Chinese people as grass that will bend in whatever direction he should expel his breath. Indeed, the thread that runs throughout Pillsbury book is fear: fear of the West, fear of China becoming democratic, fear of criticism, fear of being deceived, and most of all fear of China’s one-power rule being deposed. Indeed, one gets the feeling that the Chinese Communist Party leaders are jealous, selfish, petty, churlish, and childish. They are not about to release their grip on absolute power and have been cracking down since Xi Jinping took power in 2013. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal (“The Coming Chinese Crackup” — March 7, 2015), the endgame of communist rule has begun, and Xi’s campaign against dissent and corruption is only bringing the country closer to a breaking point. I suggest reading the last chapter first (chapter 11—America as a Warring State) then proceed to the Introduction and go from there. The last chapter contains the author’s step-by-step advice on how to deal with China in an effective and constructive way while insuring America’s place as the world’s leading power. A better title for the chapter would have been, “Fighting Back.” It’s the good news in a book that’s filled with relentless pessimism, which at times I found a bit much. Having said that, the book is strong medicine that’s foul-tasting but necessary to keep the patient—us—in robust health and out in front, as a paradigm of democracy and fair-dealing. Five stars.

This book is a must read for anyone concerned about their freedom, threats to that freedom and to the United States and her allies. Please read on... I initially purchased this as an Audible's book, recommended by a friend, a few days prior to undergoing surgery. A corneal transplant (DMEK) plus cataract removal with an inter-ocular lens replacement in my left eye. I needed something to do while laying on my back and this seemed like it was sufficiently stimulating enough that i wouldn't be bored. I always loved suspense novels like those written by Robert Ludlum, Frederick Forsyth, Tom Clancy, John le Carre, etc. And I thought to myself, this might be even better. It is! It is the real deal! As I was laying flat on my back. a position I must maintain for almost an entire week so the nitrogen bubble in my eye "glued" the grafted endothelial layer of skin to the back of my cornea, I enjoyed the calm, relaxing tone of the narrator's voice as he outlined, in somewhat astonishing detail, the author's experience about assignments, working for the United States, to collect information pertaining to the plans of China to become a democratic nation, enabling it's citizens human rights and reasonable autonomy. Much of the U.S. policies toward China when Michael Pillsbury began his assignment, from the Presidencies of Nixon up to and including Bill Clinton, if my recollection is correct, revolved around assessing China's move to become a democratic nation. Which the author described later as wishful thinking. I entirely finished this book in about three days and was able to move around when my brother contacted me by phone. We discussed this book and he sent me an article from Wall Street Journal "China Is National Security Threat No. 1" written by John Ratcliffe on Dec 3rd, 2020 in the opinion section. My brother works for an IT company that provides security for businesses, and during our conversation he recommended SANDWORM, another book I would highly recommend for the same reasons as the this book. It details how the Soviet Union, oops, I mean "Russia" used hacking technology to destroy the infrastructure and bombard the media with mis and dis information for political races in order to assume control of that country. I would like to mention right now that once my eye had healed enough for me to remain in a vertical position for the entire day I read many of the negative reviews on this book and, as a result, purchased the Kindle edition of the book so I could reference the text to see if any of those claims were true. I also fact checked a enough material of this book to satisfy myself that this author knew what he was talking about. I think it pretty obvious what my research came back thumbs up for this book. The bottom line is, if we do not stop fighting amongst ourselves, find some way to work together to address these threats to our nation and our freedom they will both be lost.

A very excellent book!

This book is a master piece from Michael Pillsbury, he sees the unseen.

Highly interesting, especially if you already did some reading on China‘s strategy and future development. Very different but well researched views in this book. The 1-star review here on Amazon (book shows racism, comparable to Elders of Zion Protocols) actually seems to prove the point of propaganda warfare and a West too ignorant and self-centred to understand long term thinking with a distinctly different world view. You might also be interested in https://www.amazon.de/Unrestricted-Warfare-Chinas-Destroy-America/dp/1549510525/ref=pd_sim_14_3/260-9809775-6445846?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1549510525&pd_rd_r=f3c4d86f-0df9-4d1c-ab75-efc3a537a2c5&pd_rd_w=F0mI2&pd_rd_wg=M9c3D&pf_rd_p=b0773d2f-6335-4e3d-8bed-091e22ee3de4&pf_rd_r=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH&psc=1&refRID=90EBYFBQVARWQJY4XXTH

El libro Llegó antes de lo previsto y en excelentes condiciones

NixonからObama大統領までの歴代大統領の対中戦略立案に関与した上級スタッフが面白い本を公開した。著者はMichael Pillsburyで、中国語（Mandarin）を読み書き・会話できる第一級の中国専門家である。著者は毛沢東とNixonの米中国交正常化以降、約40年間騙され続けた経験をもとに、中国国家100年の計を中国の古典（The Thirty-Six Stratagems:三十六計、他）と対比させながら要約したものだ。 漢字文化のない米国人が中国の古典(原書)を解読、英語版との違いを発見することは至難の作業であろう。中国亡命者（穏健派）や諜報活動を通じて得た情報も多くある。中華人民共和国の建国100年である2049年、中国が米国に替わる世界の超大国になるのか？ ■Introductionの要点（５項目）を見ると中身が想像できるであろう。米国の期待的思考が悉く裏切られたことが良く理解できる。瞞天過海の謀略とは 成る程と納得できる。 1．Engagement brings complete cooperation（婚約発表） 2．China is on the road to democracy 3．China, the fragile flower（今にも枯れる） 4．China wants to be-and is- just like us（憧れは米国） 5．China's hawks（鷹派） are weak 確かに、米国は騙され続けてきた。1950年の朝鮮戦争では参戦しないと確約した人民解放軍が参戦、米軍約30千人以上が戦 死した。1970年代の毛沢東－Nixon交渉、1989年天安門事件、1999年の中国大使館誤爆事件では米国はヒットラー以上の悪魔と攻撃された。 ■見出しと背景にある中国戦略の格言 Introduction: Wishful Thinking（期待的思考） Deceive the heavens to cross the ocean－The 36 Stratagems →瞞天過海（敵に繰り返し行動を見せつけて見慣れさせておき、油断を誘って攻撃する） 1. The China Dream(中国の大望) There cannot be two suns in the sky, nor two emperors on the earth.－ Confucius 天に二日なし、地に二帝なし 2. Warring States（中国の戦国時代） It is too soon to ask the weight of the Emperor’s cauldrons.－Spring and Autumn Annals 3. Only China Could Go to Nixon Ally with Wu(呉) in the east to oppose Wei（蜀） in the north－The Romance of the Three Kingdom(三国志演義), AD 200 Quoted in Memo to Chairman Mao,1969 →呉＝米国、蜀＝ソ連を暗示（毛沢東がNixonを招聘） 4. Mr. White and Ms. Green(亡命者の仮名) Loot a burning houses－The 36 Stratagems →趁火打劫（敵の被害や混乱に乗じて行動し、利益を得る） 5. America, the Great Satan Make something from nothing－The 36 Stratagems →無中生有 （偽装工作をわざと露見させ、相手が油断した所を攻撃する） 6. China’s Message Police Deck the tree with false blossoms- The 36 Stratagems →樹上開花（小兵力を大兵力に見せかけて敵を欺く） 7. The Assassin’s Mace Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt－ Sun Tzu, The Art of War（孫子の兵法） →不動如山。難知如陰。動如雷震。 8. The Capitalist Charade（キャピタリスト偽装） Take the opportunity to pilfer a goat－The 36 Stratagems →順手牽羊（敵の統制の隙を突き、悟られないように細かく損害を与える） 9. A World Order in 2049 The Guest becomes the owner－The 36 Stratagems →反客為主( 一旦敵の配下に従属しておき、内から乗っ取りをかける) 10. Warning Shots Better to see once than to hear a hundred times－Chinese folk proverb →(百聞不如一見) 11. America as a Warring State Steal(Remove) the firewood from under the cauldron－The 36 Stratagems →釜底抽薪（敵軍の兵站や大義名分を壊して、敵の活動を抑制し、あわよくば自壊させる）